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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward formula. It often acts as a form of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who oversaw the biggest turnaround is handed the prize. In practice, it fuels an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent leadership or just the greatest upset.

But the current field is fundamentally different. The group of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with reigning division winners fading and longtime strugglers rising in unison. During an normal year, a coach leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in such a turbulent and entertaining season, he's competing with multiple other exceptional coaches.

This is how the projected ballot should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been given the opportunity to display his rare talent. From midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an offense built solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a steady dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that springs wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been able to spin magic from nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost every bet – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the building with the level of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive wizard but the type of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the runaway choice. Yet this is not a normal season!

The area where his candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term winning. But he falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has engineered a rapid turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has nailed the leadership stuff, which was not a guarantee following his early public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and experience, Coen trusted first-timers. From the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. But Coen has pulled everyone and everything together.

After an early strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the team stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller could have derailed the season in October. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off after that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just one spot ahead of peers.

Still