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New Yorkers will discover who will be their next mayor this election day, in a race that will decide who governs and protects the country's largest city at a moment when Donald Trump has vowed to deploy military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democratic figures against each other. The contest has become an increasingly bitter face-off, laced with alleged racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading candidates that could have major implications for how the party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the young democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has attracted international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who defeated his opponent in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has run on a platform of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about two million city residents, has led his rival by significant margins across all surveys conducted in October, and it is very much the younger man's election to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as the state's leader in recent years amid accusations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has trashed his opponent's goals as unrealistic, and in recent days laughed as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as bigoted after sharing an AI-generated ad that featured a slew of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent freeing a convicts.

This represents a rather grubby end to an race that could be key to the path that the party, struggling in its reaction to the former president's power moves, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has appealed to Americans' anger at inequality, inflation and the establishment. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has generated an excitement within the Democratic ranks arguably not witnessed since the Vermont senator ran for president eight years ago.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a surprising comeback win, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of considered, uninspiring resistance – a strategy that has infuriated the party base. A New York rejection of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the best plan is to remain in the political center – even as polls show the present version of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Voters in New York appear to favor the progressive agenda. Surveys show that his backers are much more excited about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. The candidate's snappy videos on social media, his hopeful outlook for the city and his willingness to actually get out and connect with voters in the metropolis has drawn an force of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them youth or new participants.

Negative Tactics

However, the former governor, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the stakes against him, the ex-leader has resorted to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

After spending months throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might resonate, the independent has concentrated on targeting Mamdani directly. He has labelled his rival, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and appeared on conservative media for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack echoes much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to the capital and threatened to take similar action to NYC, has said about the progressive, and maybe that is expected. A set of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to elect Cuomo into office, as other powerful voices have urged Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the his team, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When the assemblyman, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, started his mayoral bid in October 2024, not many had heard of him, and in reality, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who seemingly held every edge. The classic political insider, he had wed a Kennedy and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in over a decade ago, 17 years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the identical role.

The progressive, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Still, the candidate has faced some challenges in recent days, after video emerged suggesting him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the recording, recorded at a DSA gathering in recent years. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was questioning joint training exercises between the city police and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, Mamdani seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive addressed Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could express their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Speaking to the behavior of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd